AI has become the centre of the tech world. Stock prices have surged, valuations have exploded, and billions are being poured into companies promising to own the future of artificial intelligence. But beneath the excitement, something far less comfortable is forming.
The AI bubble is real. And when it bursts, it will not be the companies people expect that come out on top. This matters because what comes next will define the next decade of technology, learning, and digital business.
Why the AI Bubble Exists
Right now, AI is being treated like the next Google or Facebook. A winner takes all market where one or two companies dominate and extract enormous profits forever. Investors are backing this idea at scale, assuming that the company with the biggest model wins. The problem is that AI does not behave like a social network or a search engine. It behaves like infrastructure.
AI models are built on publicly available research. Techniques spread fast. Experts move between organisations. Improvements that look proprietary today are replicated within months. There is no lasting secret advantage. Even more importantly, AI is brutally price sensitive.
AI Is a Commodity, Not a Monopoly
History gives us a clear warning. During the dot-com boom, internet infrastructure was meant to be the gold rush. Internet service providers were valued as if they owned the future. Most of them vanished.
The real winners were not the companies providing the internet. They were the ones building on top of it. Amazon, Netflix and Spotify did not sell access. They used access to create value. AI is following the same path.
Costs are collapsing. Chinese AI companies are producing models with comparable performance for a fraction of the price. In one recent case, a competitive model was reported to cost one fourteen-hundredth of the cost of a leading Western model. That changes everything. This is not a race to the top. It is a race to the bottom. And in commodity markets, the lowest cost provider always wins.
What Happens When the AI Bubble Bursts
When investors realise that AI models cannot sustain high margins, the market will correct hard. Valuations will fall. Companies built purely around selling models will struggle. Infrastructure providers will be squeezed until profitability becomes marginal.
This will feel dramatic, but it will not mean AI has failed. It will mean AI has matured. Just like electricity, cloud hosting, and internet access before it, AI will become cheap, abundant, and interchangeable. That is when the real opportunity begins.
Watch below to find out more:
Who Actually Wins After the Crash
The winners will not be the companies selling AI. They will be the companies using AI to make things. The businesses that survive the burst will be model agnostic. They will switch between providers freely, choosing the best or cheapest option at any given time. They will not care who built the model. They will care what the model allows them to produce. This is already happening in learning and education.
What This Means for Learning and EdTech
For years, producing high-quality digital learning content was expensive. A single course could cost between £50,000 and £100,000 to build. That limited innovation and access. By treating AI as a tool rather than a product, that cost collapses.
At Open eLMS, AI is used to generate complete learning programmes including courses, videos, podcasts, and assessments for pennies. The platform does not depend on a single AI provider. It moves fluidly between models, always optimising for cost and quality. The value is not in the AI itself. The value is in what gets built with it. That distinction matters more as AI becomes cheaper.
The Only Question That Matters Now
When the AI bubble bursts, panic will follow. Headlines will talk about failures and lost value. But underneath the noise, the real shift will already be complete. AI will no longer be the product. It will be the tool.
The organisations that thrive will be the ones that understood this early. They will not be selling intelligence. They will be applying it. So if you are building with AI today, ask yourself one question, because it is the only one that will matter when the dust settles. What are you making with it?
Try It for Yourself
If you are ready to move beyond the hype and start building with AI, try the Open eLMS Learning Generator. Upload your curriculum or PDF, and see how AI can turn your ideas into complete e-learning courses, podcasts, and video content in minutes.
The future is not about who has the biggest model. It is about who uses it best.
